Ohio State vs Purdue Pick & Prediction - 11/8/2025
Updated July 9, 2026
The Ohio State Buckeyes will face the Purdue Boilermakers on Saturday in a Big Ten matchup with huge College Football Playoff implications. Ohio State enters at 8‑0 overall and 5‑0 in Big Ten play. But they have been tripped up by Purdue in the past and the Buckeyes will try to avoid an upset here. Before kickoff from West Lafayette, you can continue reading to find my Ohio State vs Purdue prediction.
Ohio State’s defense is simply in a class of its own this season. They surrender an average of just 6.9 points and 214.8 total yards per game, ranking first nationally in both categories. Purdue has struggled mightily on both sides of the ball. They rank 106th in scoring defense (30.4 points per game allowed) and 103rd in scoring offense (22.9 points per game). This game is a huge mismatch on paper, but football games are not played on paper.
Ohio State has executed efficiently on offense as well. Quarterback Julian Sayin has thrown for 2,188 yards, 23 touchdowns, and just three interceptions this season. Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate have 16 combined touchdowns so far this season. Freshman running back Bo Jackson has 538 yards on 81 carries. Purdue has allowed big numbers to opposing passing attacks and they will be expected to struggle defending the pass against the current Heisman frontrunner.
Purdue’s offenseis led by quarterback Ryan Browne and simply lacks consistent firepower. They will need their best offensive performance of the year to keep up with the number one Buckeyes. But Ohio State has the nation's best defense, making that quite the challenge.
Julian Sayin’s play at the quarterback position has been the difference‑maker for Ohio State this year. His 316‑yard, four-touchdown performance in last week’s 38‑14 win over the Penn State Nittany Lions was another example of Sayin being one of the best quarterbacks in the country.
Ryan Browne has been serviceable but not elite for Purdue. The Boilermakers lack the explosive weapons to consistently challenge premier defenses. Browne will need to avoid turnovers while under pressure from Ohio State's defense to give the Boilermakers any chance here.
Score Projection: Ohio State 38 – Purdue 6
Win Probability: Ohio State 92%, Purdue 8%
Ohio State should roll once again in this contest against Purdue. But instead of laying the big point spread with the Buckeyes, I'm going to take the under in this spot. The Buckeyes have the best defense in the country and should be able to hold Purdue in check throughout. They will be able to chew clock late in the game and cruise to a comfortable win against their Big Ten rivals.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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