Navy Midshipmen vs Cincinnati Bearcats Liberty Bowl Prediction - 1/2/2026
Updated July 9, 2026
The Navy Midshipmen and the Cincinnati Bearcats will close out their college football bowl seasons on Friday in the AutoZone Liberty Bowl. This game pits a 10‑2 Navy squad that finished second in the American Conference against a 7‑5 Cincinnati team from the Big 12. Navy’s option offense will challenge a Bearcats defense that enters this bowl game trying to prove itself in the trenches. Before kickoff from Memphis, continue reading to get my Navy vs Cincinnati prediction in college football.
Pick: | Navy -7 |
Confidence: | 3/5 |
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Navy enters this game with a 10‑2 record. They are a service academy that has won a series of bowl games against power‑conference foes in recent years and has the nation’s top rushing offense. Senior quarterback Blake Horvath has been the cornerstone of their team, rushing for over 1,100 yards and 15 touchdowns while also throwing for nearly 1,500 yards and 10 scores. He makes the Midshipmen difficult to contain, especially for a Bearcats defense that ranks outside the top half of the country in stopping opposing rushers.
Cincinnati has faced a turbulent end to the season. After starting strong, the Bearcats dropped four straight games to finish 7‑5 and will be without starting quarterback Brendan Sorsby, who has entered the transfer portal. That loss alone significantly impacts their offensive rhythm, forcing less experienced quarterbacks like Brady Lichtenberg and Samaj Jones to carry the offense. On top of that, multiple defensive starters have also opted out, weakening an already middling unit against the run.
Navy’s Horvath is arguably the most important player in this game. His ability to execute Navy’s run‑heavy scheme while still posing a passing threat keeps defenses guessing and controls the clock. His 61.1% completion percentage, along with his rushing ability, gives the Midshipmen a leader capable of guiding long drives and sustaining scoring opportunities.
Cincinnati’s quarterback situation is a mess going into this game. Without Sorsby, who passed for nearly 2,800 yards and accounted for a combined total of 36 touchdowns, the Bearcats lack a proven passer. Lichtenberg and Jones have limited experience, which may hinder Cincinnati’s ability to sustain drives and keep pace with Navy’s methodical ground game.
Score Projection: Navy 31 – Cincinnati 20
Win Probability: Navy 68%, Cincinnati 32%
Under normal circumstances, Cincinnati would probably have a slight edge over Navy. But with so many important opt-outs, it's hard to see the Bearcats slowing down Navy's running game or putting up enough offense to stay close. I'm going to lay the points with the Midshipmen on Friday, as they should claim an 11th win to close out their season.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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