Rice Owls vs Texas State Bobcats Armed Forces Bowl Prediction - 1/2/2026
Updated July 9, 2026
The Rice Owls and Texas State Bobcats will meet in the Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl on Friday afternoon in a game between two teams moving in different directions. Texas State enters with momentum, having won three straight games to close the regular season, while Rice comes into bowl season with a 5-7 record. Who will end their season on a high note? Continue reading to get my Rice vs Texas State prediction for this matchup.
Pick: | Texas State -16.5 |
Confidence: | 3/5 |
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Texas State enters this bowl game on a positive trajectory after closing its regular season with three consecutive victories, most recently putting up 49 points against South Alabama. The Bobcats’ offense has been the driving force behind their late-season success, ranking near the top of FBS in yards per game and scoring over 40 points in two of their final three games during the regular season.
Rice’s season has been more turbulent, finishing 5-7 overall and losing three of their last four games late in the year. They failed to get the six wins usually required for bowl eligibility, but the Owls were extended an invite thanks to so many bowl-eligible teams opting out of games. The Owls also face notable departures for this contest, with starting quarterback Chase Jenkins entering the transfer portal, leaving Rice’s offense in flux heading into bowl season.
Quarterback will be a major area of focus for both squads. Texas State’s dual-threat signal-caller Brad Jackson has thrown for over 3,000 yards and 18 touchdowns through the air. He gives the Bobcats a dynamic playmaker who can create yardage in multiple ways.
Rice, on the other hand, is adjusting to life without its starter. They are likely turning to Patrick Crayton Jr. as a backup option with limited collegiate experience. The Bobcats’ experienced offensive weaponry should separate them from Rice, especially if the Owls struggle to find rhythm through the air.
Score Projection: Rice 21 – Texas State 41
Win Probability: Rice 17%, Texas State 83%
I am going to lay the points with the Texas State Bobcats in the Armed Forces Bowl on Friday afternoon. The Bobcats are in a much better place than the Owls offensively entering this contest, thanks in large part to Rice's starting quarterback entering the portal and opting out. This could be one of the worst games on the bowl schedule this year and Texas State should win it by a wide margin.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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