Texas Tech and Arizona State will meet in Big 12 play on Saturday afternoon. The Red Raiders enter this game without a loss on the season and they will try to preserve their place in the top 10 with another win in Tempe. Here, you will find my Texas Tech vs Arizona State prediction for Saturday's big game in the Big 12.
Our Texas Tech vs Arizona State Pick
- Pick: Arizona State +7
- Confidence: 3/5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Arizona State Sun Devils
- Date & Time: Saturday, October 18, 2025, 4:00 PM ET
- Venue: Mountain America Stadium, Tempe, AZ
- Broadcast: FOX
Texas Tech vs Arizona State Odds
Odds | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|
Texas Tech | -7 | -260 | Over 50.5 |
Arizona State | +7 | +215 | Under 50.5 |
Key Storylines
- Texas Tech's Defensive Dominance: The Red Raiders lead the nation in tackles for loss and sacks, with linebacker David Bailey recording 8.5 sacks this season. This aggressive defense could pose significant challenges for Arizona State's offensive line, which has allowed 17 sacks this year.
- Arizona State's Quarterback Situation: Sam Leavitt has been sidelined due to injury recently. But he is listed as probable to play in this game. Leavitt has thrown for 1,039 yards, eight touchdowns, and three interceptions this season. The Sun Devils certainly have a better chance with Leavitt than they would have without him.
- Texas Tech's Offensive Issues: Quarterback Behren Morton is set to miss this game for Texas Tech due to injury. Morton has thrown for 1,501 yards and 13 touchdowns. His absence is a huge loss for the undefeated Red Raiders. Texas Tech will start Will Hammond in the place of Morton and they will hope that they don't experience too big a dropoff at the most important position on the field.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Texas Tech: The Red Raiders have covered the spread in all six of their games this season. They are 3-3 on over/unders for the year.
- Arizona State: The Sun Devils have gone 2-3-1 against the spread for the season. Arizona State is 2-4 on their over/unders through six games.
- Head-to-Head: Texas Tech leads the all-time series 3-2, with their last meeting resulting in a 30-22 victory in Lubbock in 2024.
Texas Tech vs Arizona State Model Projection
- Score Projection: Texas Tech 24 – Arizona State 21
- Win Probability: Texas Tech 56%, Arizona State 44%
Final Thoughts
This is going to be a very close game and the quarterback situation on both sides will have a lot to do with that. The fact that Arizona State has its starting quarterback available and Texas Tech does not should keep this contest closer than it would have been otherwise. I'll take the points with Arizona State in a game that I think will come down to the final seconds.
Jay Sanin
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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