The Tulane Green Wave and Ole Miss Rebels have been paired up in the first round of the 2025 College Football Playoff. Ole Miss has a long winning streak over the Green Wave that dates back many recruiting cycles. They are favored to win this game and extend that streak while advancing to the next round of playoff competition. Before kickoff from Oxford, continue reading to get my Tulane vs Ole Miss prediction from Mississippi.
Our Tulane vs Ole Miss Pick
- Pick: Tulane +16.5
- Confidence: ★★☆☆☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Tulane Green Wave vs Ole Miss Rebels
- Date & Time: December 20, 2025, 3:30 PM ET
- Venue: Vaught–Hemingway Stadium, Oxford, MS
- Broadcast: TNT
Tulane vs Ole Miss Odds
Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|
Ole Miss –16.5 | Ole Miss –950 / Tulane +625 | 55.5 points |
Key Storylines
- Tulane’s breakthrough moment: By winning the American Conference title 34–21 over North Texas, shutting down one of the nation’s most explosive offenses, Tulane secured its first-ever CFP berth. The Green Wave’s defense forced multiple turnovers, and the offense churned out enough production despite an impending coaching transition ahead of next season.
- Ole Miss making history under duress: The Rebels posted their first-ever 11-win regular season, capped by a 38–19 blowout of Mississippi State. Yet their postseason arrives amid turbulence. Long-time head coach Lane Kiffin has departed for the LSU job, and defensive coordinator Pete Golding now takes over for the playoffs. How the team rallies around the interim leadership will be a storyline to watch in this contest.
- Rematch — and redemption on the line: These two teams last met in September, when Ole Miss rolled to a 45–10 win in Oxford. Tulane enters the playoff as the underdog, hoping to avenge that result with far bigger stakes, while Ole Miss will aim to get another statement win to set up a game against Georgia.
Quarterback Play
For Tulane, the offense runs through Jake Retzlaff. He scored two short touchdown runs in the AAC title game and helped Tulane seize momentum with a balanced offensive attack. Trinidad Chambliss is the starting quarterback for Ole Miss. He has been electrifying for the Rebels this season, throwing for just over 3,000 yards and throwing only three interceptions. If he can take care of the football and let Ole Miss' advantages in the trenches shine, Ole Miss could roll over the Green Wave again.
Betting Trends & H2H
- ATS trends: Ole Miss went 7-5 against the spread for the season. Tulane was 6-6-1 against the spread this year.
- Series history: Ole Miss has dominated the long history between the teams. The Rebels are 41-27 all-time against Tulane and has won 14 straight over the Green Wave. Ole Miss recorded a decisive 45–10 victory in their September 2025 meeting.
- Over/under trends: Ole Miss went 6-6 in the over/under market this season. Tulane went under the total in 9 of their 13 games.
Tulane vs Ole Miss Model Projection
Score Projection: Ole Miss 38 – Tulane 27
Win Probability: Ole Miss 78%, Tulane 22%
Final Thoughts
Ole Miss should be able to win at home to move onto the quarterfinals of the College Football Playoff. But I don't think this is going to be a complete blowout either. I'm going to take the points with Tulane, who are just unpredictable enough offensively with Retzlaff at quarterback to keep things respectable and represent the AAC well in the playoff.
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