Vanderbilt vs Alabama Pick & Prediction - 10/4/2025
Updated July 9, 2026
The Vanderbilt Commodores will face the Alabama Crimson Tide in a huge SEC matchup on Saturday in Tuscaloosa. The Commodores are 5-0 and brimming with confidence coming into this matchup. But they are sizable underdogs against an Alabama team that got a huge win in their last outing against Georgia. Before this huge matchup in SEC play, continue reading to get my Vanderbilt vs Alabama prediction for Saturday.
Betting Line | Vanderbilt | Alabama |
|---|---|---|
Spread | +13.5 | -13.5 |
Moneyline | +340 | -450 |
Total | 56.5 | |
Diego Pavia has been a revelation for Vanderbilt, leading the offense with poise and precision. His ability to make plays both in the air and on the ground has made him a dual-threat quarterback that defenses struggle to contain. He gave Alabama problems in their game last year and will try to do the same on the road in this contest.
Ty Simpson has 11 touchdown passes and has yet to throw an interception this season. His ability to manage the game and make key throws will be vital against a Vanderbilt defense that has performed well early on.
Score Projection: Vanderbilt 24 – Alabama 38
Win Probability: Vanderbilt 30%, Alabama 70%
Vanderbilt is one of the best stories in college football, as they brought Diego Pavia in last year and have completely changed the direction of their program. But I don't think that they are going to perform all that well on the road against Alabama. Alabama comes into this game with a ton of momentum after winning in Athens and I will lay the points with the Crimson Tide here.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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