Virginia vs North Carolina Pick & Prediction - 10/25/2025
Updated July 9, 2026
The Virginia Cavaliers and North Carolina Tar Heels will meet in ACC play on Saturday afternoon in college football. The Cavaliers come into this game ranked 16th in the country and undefeated in ACC competition this season. They will try to stay undefeated in conference competition here against a North Carolina team that has been embarrassing under Bill Belichick this year. Here, I break down this contest and give you my Virginia vs North Carolina prediction for Saturday.
Chandler Morris has been a standout for Virginia during the 2025 season. He is completing 68.7% of his passes, averaging 7.6 yards per attempt, and posting a passer rating of 146.1. He also makes plays on the ground and will keep the Tar Heels off-balance throughout this game.
North Carolina’s offense is a mess at quarterback. The primary quarterback has been Gio Lopez, who has thrown for only 597 yards, three touchdowns, and four interceptions thus far. Morris had expressed interest in playing at UNC this year and the Tar Heels probably wish they had him looking at this quarterback matchup.
Score Projection: Virginia 31 – North Carolina 17
Win Probability: Virginia 78%, North Carolina 22%
Fading North Carolina has been one of the best decisions in college football for most of this season. Outside of a win over an FCS team and a bad Charlotte team, the Tar Heels have looked horrible against any real competition they have faced. I expect that to continue in this game and for the Virginia Cavaliers to stay unbeaten in the ACC by winning and covering the spread here.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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