Bia Mesquita vs Irina Alekseeva Prediction - 10/11/2025
Updated July 9, 2026
Bia Mesquita and Irina Alekseeva will meet on Saturday's UFC Fight Night card at the Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro. This bout is the UFC debut of Mesquita, a decorated Brazilian jiu-jitsu champion, against the experienced Alekseeva. Will Mesquita stay undefeated in her professional MMA career, or will Alekseeva give her a rude welcome to the UFC? Here, I break down this fight and make my Bia Mesquita vs Irina Alekseeva prediction below.
Attribute | Bia Mesquita | Irina Alekseeva |
|---|---|---|
Age | 34 | 35 |
Height | 5'4" | 5'8" |
Reach | 66" | 67" |
Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
Record | 5-0-0 | 5-3-0 |
Bia Mesquita enters the UFC with an impeccable 5-0 record. She is a 10-time jiu-jitsu world champion and ADCC gold medalist. Mesquita is renowned for her exceptional grappling skills, which have helped her to get three of her five wins by submission. Training at American Top Team alongside UFC contender Kayla Harrison, she is poised to make a significant impact in the bantamweight division.
Irina Alekseeva is 5-3 in her MMA career. She submitted Stephanie Egger in her UFC debut in April of 2023. But Alekseeva has lost two straight fights to Melissa Mullins and Klaudia Syguła since then. This might not be a great matchup for Alekseeva, whose best path to victory is usually to submit her opponents. That isn't likely to happen given Mesquita's grappling advantage going into this fight.
Mesquita's elite grappling is expected to be the deciding factor in this fight. While Alekseeva possesses striking capabilities, her recent performances suggest that she is in danger when faced with high-level grapplers. Mesquita's aggressive submission game and relentless pressure should enable her to control the fight and start her UFC career on a high note.
I am very excited to see Bia Mesquita make her UFC debut in this fight. Her world-class jiu-jitsu and undefeated MMA record make her one of the most compelling fighters in the women's bantamweight division right away. Alekseeva is more experienced, but has struggled against fighters whose jiu-jitsu is nowhere near the level of Mesquita. I am expecting a dominant performance from Mesquita, culminating in a submission victory within the first two rounds.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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