Lucas Rocha vs Stewart Nicoll Prediction - 10/11/2025
Updated July 9, 2026
Lucas Rocha and Stewart Nicoll will battle it out on Saturday night during UFC Fight Night from Rio de Janeiro. Both fighters dropped their UFC debuts in their last fights. They will try to even their record at 1-1 as members of the UFC roster with a win in this prelim matchup. I have analyzed this fight from all angles and you can find my Lucas Rocha vs Stewart Nicoll prediction below.
Attribute | Lucas Rocha | Stewart Nicoll |
|---|---|---|
Age | 25 | 30 |
Height | 5'3" | 5'5" |
Reach | 64" | 65.5" |
Record | 17-2-0 | 8-1-0 |
Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
Lucas Rocha enters this bout with a professional record of 17 wins and two losses. Rocha has secured 10 of his victories via knockout, including Davi Bittencourt in a Contender Series fight in 2023. The Brazilian took a loss to Clayton Carpenter in his UFC debut in October of 2024. He will try to get his first UFC victory in this fight and get his UFC career moving in the right direction.
Stewart Nicoll enters this fight with a record of eight wins and one loss. His only defeat came in his UFC debut against Jesus Aguilar in August of 2024, where he succumbed to a first-round guillotine choke. Prior to that, Nicoll had earned finishes in seven of his eight wins. Nicoll is the more well-rounded of the two fighters entering this bout. He has submission wins by armbar, triangle choke, and rear naked choke in his MMA career and is a talented striker as well.
The most interesting thing about this fight is the fact that both fighters have a lot to prove in UFC. I don't think we saw the best of either fighter in their first fight in the promotion and we will see at least one of these fighters perform better here. As far as who I think that fighter will be, I would lean toward it being Stewart Nicoll.
Nicoll is better at generating takedowns and is likely to be the busier striker as well. He has more paths to victory, even if Rocha will benefit from competing on home soil in Brazil. I'll take Nicoll to win as a slight underdog in hostile territory here.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
Affiliate Disclosure
ATS.io uses affiliate links. If you sign up through a link on this page, we may earn a commission at no additional cost to you. Rankings are based on hands-on testing and published criteria, and affiliate relationships do not determine placement.
