Julia Polastri vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz Prediction - 10/11/2025
Updated July 9, 2026
Julia Polastri and Karolina Kowalkiewicz will meet in the first women's matchup of Saturday's UFC Fight Night card from Rio de Janeiro. These fighters are both coming off of losses in their last fights. Polastri is a heavy favorite in her home country of Brazil. Before this fight begins, continue reading to get my Julia Polastri vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz prediction.
Attribute | Julia Polastri | Karolina Kowalkiewicz |
|---|---|---|
Age | 27 | 39 |
Height | 5'2" | 5'3" |
Reach | 63" | 64" |
Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
Record | 13-5-0 | 16-9-0 |
Julia Polastri enters this bout with a 13-5 record for her career. She took a unanimous decision loss against Loopy Godinez in her last fight and has dropped two of her three fights since joining UFC. Still, Polastri is a heavy favorite going into this fight against a fighter in Kowalkiewicz who is well past her prime as she nears 40 years of age.
Kowalkiewicz enters this fight with a 16-9 career record. She has experienced a decline in recent performances, including a unanimous decision loss to Denise Gomes in November of 2024. At 39 years old, Kowalkiewicz has dropped two straight fights and is having trouble keeping up with younger, faster opponents. Her experience in the octagon will always be an asset, but her recent fights have prompted questions about her ability to compete at the highest level.
I would be shocked if we saw anything but a fight that goes to the judges here. I would also be shocked if we saw Julia Polastri fail to get the decision victory. Kowalkiewicz has been a legend in women's MMA thanks to her efforts in UFC. But her best days are so far behind her and I expect Polastri to have firm control of this fight throughout.
My best bet for this matchup is for Polastri to win by decision. There isn't a ton of value there or anywhere in the betting markets for this fight in my opinion. But I don't think that there is any justification to bet on Kowalkiewicz or to bet on Polastri to win by decision.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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