Luan Lacerda vs Saimon Oliveira Prediction - 10/11/2025
Updated July 9, 2026
Luan Lacerda and Saimon Oliveira will begin Saturday's UFC Fight Night card with a bantamweight matchup in Rio de Janeiro. This card will start with Saimon Oliveira and end with Charles Oliveira in a huge night for Brazilian MMA. Which Brazilian will get the win in this prelim card opener? Continue reading to get my analysis of this fight, including my Luan Lacerda vs Saimon Oliveira prediction.
Statistic | Luan Lacerda | Saimon Oliveira |
|---|---|---|
Age | 32 | 34 |
Height | 5'7" | 5'4" |
Weight | 136 lbs | 144 lbs |
Reach | 71.5" | 72" |
Record | 12-3-0 | 18-6-0 |
Luan Lacerda enters this bout with a professional MMA record of 12 wins and three losses. Of his 13 wins, 10 have come by submission. But Lacerda's submission skills have not carried over into UFC. Since making his UFC debut, the Brazilian is 0-2 and was most recently knocked out by Da'Mon Blackshear in June of 2023. This is his first fight in over two years and Lacerda will try to get back on the right track in his return to the octagon.
Saimon Oliveira enters this fight with a record of 18 wins and six losses. He is also winless since joining UFC, going 0-3 in the promotion since making his debut in 2022. Oliveira has been knocked out in each of his last two fights and he will try to prevent the same from happening here, though it is a submission that Oliveira will have to worry about more than the threat of a knockout from Lacerda.
The betting odds for this fight suggest that Lacerda is going to control things in this prelim opener. It is hard to trust either of these fighters to deliver based on what we have seen from them in UFC so far, but Lacerda is expected to have the clearest path to victory.
I don't love the idea of betting on either of these fighters given their history in UFC fights so far. But Lacerda's superior grappling and a pretty significant weight miss from Oliveira have made it pretty clear that Lacerda is likely to get the win in this matchup. If Lacerda can close the distance and bring the fight to the ground, he should be able to secure a submission victory. I'll take Lacerda to win by submission, either in the first round or early in the second.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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