Jafel Filho vs Clayton Carpenter Prediction - 10/11/2025
Updated July 9, 2026
Jafel Filho and Clayton Carpenter will meet on Saturday's UFC Fight Night card from Rio de Janeiro. These flyweights both took losses in their most recent fights. They have a chance to get back on track with a win here, with Filho entering as a slight favorite on home soil. Before this fight begins on Saturday, continue reading to get my Jafel Filho vs Clayton Carpenter prediction.
Attribute | Jafel Filho | Clayton Carpenter |
|---|---|---|
Age | 32 | 29 |
Height | 5'7" | 5'6" |
Reach | 68.5" | 66" |
Record | 16-4-0 | 8-1-0 |
Jafel Filho has a 16-4 record and has a big experience edge over Clayton Carpenter. Filho is a submission specialist and has earned 10 of his 16 career wins by submission. Filho is 2-2 since joining UFC and most recently suffered a setback against Allan Nascimento. Filho's two UFC wins have both come by submission and he will try to get another stoppage win in this fight.
Clayton Carpenter enters this fight with an 8-1 record. After starting his UFC career with two rear-naked choke victories, Carpenter faced a setback against Tagir Ulanbekov, losing by decision. Both of Carpenter's UFC wins have also come by submission and this fight could turn into a battle to see who does the best job of setting up a submission attempt and cashing in on it.
Carpenter does have the benefit of being a more versatile fighter coming into this matchup. He is a more active striker and is more capable of using ground and pound to his advantage. But both fighters are very good at imposing their will on the ground and that is where this fight will likely be decided.
We are going to see both of these fighters grapple and battle on the ground to try and impose their will in this fight. I think there is some value in the underdog here, as Carpenter has just as good a chance of winning this one as Filho. Carpenter has more paths to victory here, as he can do a little bit more from a striking standpoint, with both fighters are relatively equal when it comes to their specialties on the ground.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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