Lucas Almeida vs Michael Aswell Prediction - 10/11/2025
Updated July 9, 2026
Lucas Almeida and Michael Aswell will fight in the UFC featherweight division from Rio de Janeiro on Saturday night. Both fighters took losses in their last appearance in the octagon and both will try to avoid dropping a second consecutive fight here. I have broken down both fighters and you can find my Lucas Almeida vs Michael Aswell prediction below.
Category | Lucas Almeida | Michael Aswell |
|---|---|---|
Age | 34 | 25 |
Height | 5'11" | 5'8" |
Reach | 71" | 69" |
Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
Record | 15–4 | 10–3 |
Lucas Almeida enters this bout with a record of 15-4. Despite a promising start in the UFC, Almeida has faced challenges recently, earning just one win in his last four outings. He averages 4.94 significant strikes per minute, but he absorbs 5.04 strikes per minute and his high-volume output has led him into trouble at times. Almeida doesn't bother with grappling in his fights and Aswell will be happy to stay upright and throw strikes with the Brazilian here.
Michael Aswell is just 25 years old and has a record of 10-3 in his career. Aswell is also known for his high-volume striking. Aswell averages a jaw-dropping 9.10 significant strikes landed per minute coming into this matchup. But he lost his UFC debut to Bolaji Oki by decision and he will try to get to 1-1 in UFC with a win here.
We should see a lot of entertaining striking exchanges in this fight. Aswell is likely to throw a higher volume of strikes, but Almeida has shown an ability to secure stoppages and will try to do so here in front of a supportive home crowd in Brazil. The big question for this fight will be whether Almeida can land enough big shots to offset the higher volume that Aswell is expected to put out there.
In my opinion, Aswell will do enough to win this fight by decision. Almeida can be as measured as he wants with his striking, but I don't think that is going to be enough for him to win against a relentless opponent. I'll take Aswell here, as he should get his first win as a member of the UFC roster while disappointing the crowd in Rio that will want to see Almeida get the job done.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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