The NBA’s holiday showcase on Christmas Day includes a Western Conference matchup between the Dallas Mavericks and the Golden State Warriors at Chase Center in San Francisco on Thursday. Both teams enter this Christmas encounter at .500 or below on the season. But the star power in this game is undeniable, with rookie Cooper Flagg and Anthony Davis leading the Mavs against Steph Curry and Jimmy Butler of the Warriors. Before this contest from the Bay Area, you'll find my Mavericks vs Warriors prediction right here.
Our Mavericks vs Warriors Pick
Pick: | Mavericks +8.5 |
Confidence: | 2/5 |
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Dallas Mavericks @ Golden State Warriors
- Date & Time: Thursday, December 25, 2025, 5:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: Chase Center, San Francisco, California
- Broadcast: ABC
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Key Storylines
- The Warriors enter this game at 15-15 on the season and have won two straight home games going into Christmas Day. They have been stronger at home with a 9-4 record in San Francisco. Their offense has been right around the league average this season, but the threat of Steph Curry is always something for opposing defenses to worry about.
- Golden State has injury concerns heading into this game, with Al Horford listed as questionable due to a back issue and Seth Curry listed as out with a thigh injury. Horford coming back would be a nice lift for the Dubs, but the nucleus of their roster is healthy for the most part.
- The Mavericks are 12-19 and have faced road challenges all season with a 3-9 away record. However, they have tightened up recently, winning seven of their last 11 games and bringing improved energy into this Christmas showcase.
- Dallas’ rotation has been impacted by absences, including Dereck Lively II and Dante Exum out for the season, with other contributors such as Max Christie and P.J. Washington listed as questionable. The team’s depth will be tested in hostile territory.
- Rookie Cooper Flagg has emerged as a key contributor for the Mavericks, scoring a team-high 19.2 points per game this year. He is developing consistency as a pro and will try to make another impact in his first Christmas Day game in the NBA.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- This is the first of three regular-season meetings between the Mavs and Warriors.
- Dallas is 15-16 against the spread so far this season.
- Golden State is 14-16 against the spread going into Christmas Day.
- The Warriors have gone 17-13 on totals this season, favoring the over.
- The Mavericks have stayed under the total in 17 of their 31 games.
Best Player Props to Watch
Player | Prop |
|---|
Stephen Curry | Under 28.5 Points |
Cooper Flagg | Over 20.5 Points |
Anthony Davis | Over 25.5 Points |
Mavericks vs Warriors Model Projection
Score Projection: Dallas Mavericks 111 – Golden State Warriors 116
Win Probability: Dallas Mavericks 32%, Golden State Warriors 68%
Final Thoughts
Golden State should be able to get a win at home on Christmas Day to extend its hot streak on its home floor. But I'm taking the points with the Mavs in this matchup. The size of Flagg and Davis will be hard for the Warriors to contain and we should see the Mavs keep this game close.
Jay Sanin
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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