Houston Rockets vs Los Angeles Lakers Prediction & Best Bets - 12/25/2025
Updated July 9, 2026
Thursday’s Christmas Day showdown between the Houston Rockets and the Los Angeles Lakers is a highly anticipated Western Conference clash that pits Kevin Durant against LeBron James in the main event of the NBA Christmas slate. The Rockets are slight favorites going into this matchup, but the Lakers could have their top stars on the floor together after some injuries made that an issue of late. Before this huge game tips off in LA, you can find my Rockets vs Lakers prediction below.
Pick: | Rockets -2.5 |
Confidence: | 3/5 |
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Houston enters this contest on the heels of a poor stretch that includes two straight losses and losses in four of their last five games. The Rockets continue to be led by Kevin Durant with significant contributions from Amen Thompson and Alperen Şengün as well. While the Rockets have struggled of late, they should have a favorable matchup with Sengun taking on Deandre Ayton and the rest of the lackluster front line of the Lakers.
The Lakers have dealt with injuries throughout the early portion of the season but are expecting Luka Dončić to return from a lower-leg contusion to suit up on Christmas Day. That would be a massive boost to Los Angeles’ offensive firepower, as Dončić leads the league in scoring and brings elite passing that makes life easier on LeBron James and other key pieces. If Doncic plays, it will be interesting to see what his workload looks like in this key matchup in the Western Conference.
Player | Prop |
|---|---|
Luka Dončić | Under 33.5 Points |
Kevin Durant | Over 25.5 Points |
LeBron James | Under 20.5 Points |
Score Projection: Rockets 117 – Lakers 113
Win Probability: Rockets 55%, Lakers 45%
This could be the most competitive game of the NBA Christmas Day slate on Thursday. But I think that the Rockets have the inside track to winning and covering the spread on the road. Doncic could be limited in his return from injury, while the Rockets' key players are all healthy and should be able to get over the finish line late in a tight game.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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