Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets Prediction & Odds - 12/25/2025
Updated July 9, 2026
The Minnesota Timberwolves and Denver Nuggets will close out the Christmas Day NBA slate in a Western Conference matchup on Thursday night. Both of these teams enter Christmas Day in the top five in the Western Conference standings and will try to get a huge win over a division rival in this matchup. Before the action begins from Ball Arena, continue reading for my analysis of this matchup, as well as my Timberwolves vs Nuggets prediction.
Pick: | Nuggets -2.5 |
Confidence: | 3/5 |
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Denver enters this Christmas clash with some notable absences. Aaron Gordon (hamstring) and Christian Braun (ankle) are both out, and forward Cam Johnson is expected to miss some time following a knee injury suffered in their most recent loss to Dallas. These injuries cost Denver depth around Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray. But the Nuggets are 21-8 even with those injury issues and will try to get back into the win column here.
Minnesota has been solid this month, stringing together three straight wins, including victories over New York and Oklahoma City. Anthony Edwards has been the driving force for the Wolves' offense, consistently putting up elite scoring numbers. Edwards is averaging 28.7 points per game and will have to be great to offset the offensive production of Jokic. The Joker has had a ton of success against Rudy Gobert historically. If the Wolves can't figure out a way to keep Jokic from burning Gobert in this game, it could be a long night for Minnesota in the Mile High City.
Player | Prop |
|---|---|
Anthony Edwards | Under 30.5 Points |
Nikola Jokic | Triple-Double |
Jamal Murray | Over 25.5 Points |
Score Projection: Minnesota 118 – Denver 123
Win Probability: Timberwolves 45%, Nuggets 55%
I'm laying the points with the Nuggets in this Christmas Day matchup against the Timberwolves. Jokic is going to have another huge game at the expense of Rudy Gobert, who is great at defending just about everyone but the Joker. Jamal Murray will also have a big game to help Denver close out the NBA Christmas slate with a statement win.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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