Oklahoma City Thunder vs Indiana Pacers Prediction - 10/23/2025
Updated July 9, 2026
The Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers will meet in the NBA on Thursday night. This is an NBA Finals rematch early in the regular season after the Thunder won the title over the Pacers back in June. Indiana will have revenge on their minds in this game, but some roster changes could make that hard for them to get. Before tip-off from Indianapolis, keep reading to get my Thunder vs Pacers prediction.
Market | Odds |
|---|---|
Spread | Thunder -7.5 |
Moneyline | Thunder -300, Pacers +250 |
Total (O/U) | 229.5 points |
Oklahoma City enters at 1-0 after a 125-124 double-overtime victory over the Houston Rockets on Tuesday. They are battle-tested already and will try to build on their strong crunch time performance in that game. This is the first game of the season for Indiana. They will be playing at home and motivated after their deep postseason run.
Injuries are a major factor here for both teams. The Pacers are without star guard Tyrese Haliburton for the season after his Achilles injury suffered against the Thunder in Game 7 of the Finals. This absence significantly impacts Indiana’s offensive rhythm and ability to make plays on the perimeter. Jalen Williams (wrist) is out for OKC along with Isaiah Joe (knee), and Alex Caruso (concussion protocol). Luguentz Dort (ankle) and Cason Wallace (knee) are also questionable.
It will also be interesting to see how the Pacers deal with the loss of Myles Turner to the Milwaukee Bucks. Without Turner, Isaiah Jackson could start at the five for Indiana, or they could start Pascal Siakam as a small-ball five. The Pacers will need to figure that out as they look to make it back to the Finals this year despite so much adversity.
Player | Prop |
|---|---|
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Over 28.5 points |
Chet Holmgren | Over 8.5 rebounds |
Bennedict Mathurin | Over 18.5 points |
Score Projection: Thunder 115 – Pacers 104
Win Probability: Thunder 65%, Pacers 35%
The Thunder barely escaped their ring night with a win over the Houston Rockets. But the Pacers aren't currently built to challenge the Thunder the same way they did in last year's Finals. Indiana's frontcourt isn't as much of a strength as it was last season and the Pacers are without their top perimeter playmaker for the entirety of this season.
I don't love this Thunder team nearly as much without Jalen Williams to serve as their second scoring option. But OKC should have enough weapons left to win and cover the spread on the road here.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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