Buffalo Bills vs Denver Broncos Divisional Playoff Prediction & Odds - 1/17/2026
Updated July 9, 2026
The Buffalo Bills and Denver Broncos are set to meet in the Divisional Round of the 2026 NFL Playoffs on Saturday. After the Bills’ dramatic 27‑24 road win over the Jacksonville Jaguars, both franchises are preparing for a high‑stakes battle with a trip to the AFC Championship on the line. This rematch of last season’s postseason matchup is a little different than the game we saw last year, as the Broncos are the top seed in the AFC this year and looking to get revenge on the Bills after last postseason. Here, I break down this AFC playoff matchup and give you my Bills vs Broncos prediction.
Pick: | Bills -1.5 |
Confidence: | 4/5 |
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Buffalo enters this divisional contest fresh off a gritty road victory that snapped a decades‑long playoff road drought. Quarterback Josh Allen spearheaded the Bills' comeback over the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday, showing resilience and physical toughness despite battling through multiple injury issues during the wild‑card win. His ability to extend plays and create with his arm and his legs late in games remains a defining strength of this Bills' offense.
Denver comes in with the AFC's top seed after earning a first‑round bye with a regular-season record of 14-3. The Broncos have excelled at home, posting an 8‑1 record during the regular season. They also benefit from extra rest and preparation time after having Wild Card Weekend off. Their defense ranks among the best in the NFL and they will try to shut down Josh Allen to get to the AFC title game with a win.
Josh Allen is the leader of the Bills’ offense. His performance against the Jaguars showcased his leadership and playmaking ability, finishing with over 270 passing yards, a passing touchdown, and two rushing scores in a tight game that required every ounce of his skill to secure the win.
On the other sideline, Broncos quarterback Bo Nix leads a balanced attack with nearly 4,000 passing yards on the season and 25 touchdown passes. His poise and decision‑making have been key to Denver’s success this year, and the extra week of rest should aid his preparation for the intensity of playoff football at home. But he has yet to prove that he can win on the big stage of the playoffs, which could be a problem.
Score Projection: Bills 24 – Broncos 21
Win Probability: Bills 54%, Broncos 46%
The Broncos certainly deserved the top seed in the AFC this year and have been unreal on defense this season. But I can't pick against Josh Allen against Bo Nix in a playoff game yet. Look for Allen to make the big plays that the Bills need late in this game to help Buffalo get back to the AFC title game and move one step closer to taking advantage of the absence of Patrick Mahomes in this year's postseason.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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