Carolina Panthers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick & Prediction - 1/3/2026
Updated July 9, 2026
The Carolina Panthers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers will meet in Week 18 of the NFL season with the NFC South championship on the line. There is no Wild Card spot for these teams to fall back on after this game. The winner will claim the NFC South title and the NFC's fourth seed, while the loser will be eliminated from the playoffs. Which team will get the job done in Tampa? Continue reading to get my Panthers vs Buccaneers prediction for the final week of the NFL regular season.
Pick: | Panthers +3.5 |
Confidence: | 3/5 |
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Both of these teams have been struggling of late and dropping important games that could have already won them the division title. The Bucs have lost four games in a row, including division games against the Panthers and Atlanta Falcons. Carolina has dropped two of its last three games, including a division game to a New Orleans Saints team that has already been eliminated from playoff contention. But someone will make the playoffs after this game and the question is who that team will be.
The team that can find some rhythm offensively will be the team most likely to get a win in this spot. The Panthers were held to just 10 points at home against the Seattle Seahawks in Week 17, while the Bucs could only muster 17 points against a struggling Miami Dolphins team. Both teams have weapons and will try to use them to avoid another lackluster showing on the scoreboard that would cost them a spot in the playoffs.
Bryce Young looked like he was in the biggest game of his career last week against the Seahawks. Young threw for just 54 yards in Week 17 and will have to be better if the Panthers are going to have any chance of getting back to the playoffs with a win.
Baker Mayfield will serve as the quarterback for the Bucs in this winner-take-all matchup. Mayfield looked like an MVP candidate for a good chunk of this season. But he has six touchdown passes and five interceptions during Tampa's four-game losing streak. Taking care of the football will be key to this game for Mayfield and the Buccaneers.
Score Projection: Buccaneers 24, Panthers 21
Win Probability: Buccaneers 52%, Panthers 48%
I will take the points with the Carolina Panthers in the matchup for the NFC South title. Neither team has looked convincing of late. I think that we will see a one-possession game no matter who wins here, and I'll gladly take over a field goal with the underdog.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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