Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs Prediction & Preview - 12/25/2025
Updated July 9, 2026
The Denver Broncos will visit the Kansas City Chiefs in the final game of the NFL Christmas Day schedule on Thursday night. This game is huge for Denver as it battles for the AFC West title and looks to put itself on top in the race for the top seed in the AFC. Kansas City enters this contest reeling from injuries at quarterback and already eliminated from postseason contention. Before kickoff on Christmas night, you will find my Broncos vs Chiefs prediction below.
Pick: | Broncos -13.5 |
Confidence: | 3/5 |
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Denver enters this contest as a heavy favorite with a record of 12-3, looking to secure the AFC West crown and homefield advantage over the final weeks of the regular season. The Broncos suffered a frustrating loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 16, snapping an impressive winning streak. But they still control their destiny in the division heading into Christmas night.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs have fallen on hard times, going 6-9 and officially being eliminated from playoff contention after a series of losses and critical injuries at quarterback. Both Patrick Mahomes and backup Gardner Minshew are on injured reserve with torn ACLs, leaving third-stringer Chris Oladokun to make his first career start under center. The Chiefs have also dealt with a slew of other injuries that have drained the depth across their roster.
Broncos quarterback Bo Nix has been one of the most improved signal callers in the league this season. He has displayed poise in close games, thrown for over 3,600 yards with 24 touchdowns to 10 interceptions. His mobility and decision-making should give the Broncos the advantage at the quarterback position.
On the other sideline, Chris Oladokun takes over for Kansas City. With very limited regular-season experience, Oladokun’s confidence and timing with his receivers will be tested early and often against a Broncos defense that excels at rushing the passer and forcing turnovers. The Broncos once had to start Kendall Hinton at quarterback in a game. And while Oladokun is likely better than Hinton, things could get ugly for the Chiefs with him under center.
Score Projection: Denver 27, Kansas City 10
Win Probability: Denver 88%, Kansas City 12%
I don't like the concept of laying this many points with a road favorite in a division game under most circumstances. But I do like the idea of taking the Broncos as a heavy favorite in this game in particular. The Broncos defense should shut down Oladokun and the Kansas City offense, making it so the Broncos don't have to do a ton to win with some margin to close out Christmas in the NFL.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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