Houston Texans vs Los Angeles Chargers ATS Pick & Prediction - 12/27/2025
Updated July 9, 2026
Saturday's Week 17 showdown between the Houston Texans and Los Angeles Chargers on Saturday is set to be one of the most important games in the NFL this week. Both clubs come into this contest in playoff position. The Texans (10-5) have won seven consecutive games and remain in the hunt for the AFC South title and a playoff berth. The Chargers (11-4) have strung together four straight victories and are still in contention to claim the AFC West crown. Before these teams take the field against each other, you will find my Texans vs Chargers prediction below.
Pick: | Under 39.5 |
Confidence: | 3/5 |
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This game has heavyweight implications for the playoff outlooks of both sides. Houston’s seven-game win streak has vaulted them into the postseason conversation and gives them a chance to clinch a playoff berth with a win or tie. Their defense has been a standout unit, ranking near the top of the league in both points and yards allowed, and the Texans have Pro Bowl selections on both sides of the football. However, injuries along the offensive line and at running back could hamper their scoring potential on the road.
Los Angeles enters off four straight wins of their own and has a chance to secure a division title with victories over the Texans and Broncos in the final two weeks of the regular season. A suspension to linebacker Denzel Perryman weakens their front seven, though the Chargers defense remains stout overall. Both clubs know exactly what’s at stake and will bring full focus to this late-season test.
C.J. Stroud continues to lead Houston’s offense with precision and poise, having thrown for over 2,600 yards, 16 touchdown passes, and just six interceptions. His ability to extend plays and get the ball to his top target, Nico Collins, has fueled the Texans’ recent winning streak.
Justin Herbert has been steady at quarterback for Los Angeles, eclipsing 3,400 yards and 25 touchdowns on the season. Herbert’s top target is Ladd McConkey, who has 758 receiving yards and six touchdown receptions. Herbert has thrown 12 interceptions this year and will have to avoid turning the ball for the Chargers to get an important win here.
Score Projection: Chargers 21 – Texans 17
Win Probability: Chargers 54%, Texans 46%
My best bet for this contest is for the Texans and Chargers to stay under the total in Inglewood. Both of these teams are gifted defensively and they should be able to get after the quarterback effectively enough to bend without breaking. This will be a close game and a low-scoring one.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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