Detroit Lions vs Washington Commanders Pick - 11/9/2025
Updated July 9, 2026
We saw the Washington Commanders shock the Detroit Lions in the Divisional playoffs last season to get to the NFC Championship Game. It may be harder for the Commanders to upset the Lions this week due to an injury to Commanders starting quarterback Jayden Daniels. Keep reading to get my Lions vs Commanders prediction before Sunday's rematch from last season's playoffs.
Detroit comes into this game after a tough loss to the Minnesota Vikings last week. The Lions’ defense struggled mightily in that game against a mobile quarterback in JJ McCarthy. Washington is going to start a mobile quarterback in Marcus Mariota this week and Detroit will need to do a better job of containing the quarterback in the pocket to force mistakes this week.
Washington has to start Mariota again because of the loss of starting quarterback Jayden Daniels to a dislocated elbow. Mariota is a veteran but lacks the explosive playmaking ability that has made Daniels the face of the Commanders franchise after just a year and a half as a pro. Washington's defense will have to step up in a big way to offset the drop in offensive productivity with Mariota at the helm.
Detroit comes into this game a half-game behind the Green Bay Packers in the race for first place in the NFC North. Green Bay's tie against the Dallas Cowboys has them a game ahead of the Lions in the loss column entering this week. The Packers are playing the defending champion Eagles this week and that makes this game against a backup quarterback a great chance for the Lions to get back atop their division.
Jared Goff has delivered this season with 1,915 passing yards, 17 touchdowns, and just 3 interceptions through eight games. He’s taking care of the football and benefiting from an elite running game alongside him. Mariota has thrown four touchdowns and four interceptions so far in limited action. The Lions should have a huge edge in the passing game in this contest.
Score Projection: Detroit Lions 30 – Washington Commanders 17
Win Probability: Lions 70%, Commanders 30%
If Jayden Daniels was healthy this could be a highly competitive game from Landover. But the Lions should win easily against the Marcus Mariota-led Commanders here. Detroit's offense has been performing at a high level and their defense should benefit from the downgrade at quarterback for Washington. I will lay the points with Detroit in this Sunday afternoon matchup.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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