Houston Texans vs Pittsburgh Steelers Wild Card Prediction & Odds - 1/12/2026
Updated July 9, 2026
The final game of NFL Wild Card weekend this season will take place between the Houston Texans and Pittsburgh Steelers at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh. The Steelers were the final team to qualify for the playoffs, winning the AFC North in dramatic fashion over the Baltimore Ravens. Can Pittsburgh hold serve at home, or will the Texans use their elite defense to advance? Here, I attempt to answer that question with my Texans vs Steelers prediction for Monday night.
Pick: | Texans -2.5 ATS PRO |
Confidence: | 3/5 |
Market | Odds |
|---|---|
Spread | Texans -2.5 |
Moneyline | Texans -148, Steelers +124 |
Total | 39.5 |
CJ Stroud dealt with a concussion and a slow start to the regular season. But he turned things around nicely and helped the Texans to win nine straight games to lock up the fifth seed in the AFC. It will be fascinating to see how Stroud performs in the playoffs here, as he has a losing record in the postseason early in his career.
Aaron Rodgers wasn't great for most of this year, but he led the Steelers to do just well enough to make the playoffs. His final drive to get Pittsburgh into the playoffs was clutch and a sign that he still has the magic in him at times. But that magic might not be enough at his age and against such a good Texans defense.
Score Projection: Texans 24, Steelers 20 ATS PRO
Win Probability: Texans 53%, Steelers 47% ATS PRO
I'm laying the points with the Texans on Monday night to close out Wild Card weekend. Houston's defense might be the best in the league going into the playoffs, and I expect them to make life miserable for Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers' offense. Expect Houston to roll into round two and for Aaron Rodgers' storied career to potentially end here.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
Affiliate Disclosure
ATS.io uses affiliate links. If you sign up through a link on this page, we may earn a commission at no additional cost to you. Rankings are based on hands-on testing and published criteria, and affiliate relationships do not determine placement.
