Los Angeles Chargers vs New England Patriots Wild Card Prediction & Odds - 1/11/2026
Updated July 9, 2026
The Los Angeles Chargers and New England Patriots are set to collide in the NFL Wild Card round in a postseason matchup that pits two very good quarterbacks against one another. The Patriots closed the regular season with a 14–3 record, earning the AFC East title behind second-year quarterback Drake Maye. The Chargers finished at 11–6, securing a Wild Card berth behind a balanced offense led by Justin Herbert. Before Wild Card Weekend kicks off, continue reading for my Chargers vs Patriots prediction.
Pick: | Patriots -3.5 |
Confidence: | 4/5 |
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New England enters this game with momentum from an exceptional regular season in which they rebounded from a disappointing 4–13 year to claim the AFC East title. Drake Maye has developed into a top NFL quarterback, leading the league in key efficiency metrics such as completion percentage and passer rating while throwing for over 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns. This kind of efficiency has helped the Patriots finish with the second seed in the AFC.
The Chargers are coming off an 11–6 campaign in Jim Harbaugh’s second season as head coach. Los Angeles lost their last two regular-season games, but they played backup quarterback Trey Lance in Week 18 and will look better on offense behind Herbert. L.A. has been more balanced but less explosive down the stretch, and there are questions about their ability to match New England’s energy in a playoff setting. Historically, the Chargers have struggled in postseason contests and have had issues with consistency from the quarterback position in clutch moments.
Drake Maye’s ascendancy has changed the immediate future of the Patriots. His precision passing and red-zone efficiency have lifted the Patriots into Super Bowl contention, and he enters the postseason with MVP buzz after a standout regular season. His ability to spread the ball around and avoid turnovers will be especially important against a Chargers defense that can generate pressure but may struggle with coverage at times.
On the Chargers’ side, Justin Herbert has been a fine leader and has consistently put up strong passing numbers, but questions linger about his postseason performances and ability to overcome aggressive defensive schemes. Herbert’s playoff history includes inconsistency, and compared to Maye’s recent level of play, the edge in the quarterback duel leans toward New England slightly.
Score Projection: Patriots 27 – Chargers 20
Win Probability: Patriots 62%, Chargers 38%
I am laying the points with the Patriots at home during Wild Card Weekend. New England is better on both sides of the ball and I don't think that Justin Herbert's playoff performances warrant valuing his experience over Drake Maye's inexperience. I'll take New England to advance to the Divisional playoffs.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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