Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans Prediction - 1/4/2026
Updated July 9, 2026
The final week of the NFL regular season will include an AFC South matchup between the Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans. The Colts are officially eliminated from playoff contention despite their strong start to the year, while the Texans have locked up a playoff spot and will try to do their part en route to an AFC South title. Before kickoff from NRG Stadium, you can find my Colts vs Texans prediction for Week 18 right here.
Pick: | Under 40.5 |
Confidence: | 4/5 |
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The Houston Texans are playing for postseason positioning in the final week of the regular season. The Texans trail the Jacksonville Jaguars by one game in the AFC South standings, needing a win and a Jags loss to claim the division title. But the Texans have guaranteed themselves a Wild Card berth and can be seeded anywhere from third to seventh by the end of Week 18's play.
The Texans have won eight games in a row going into Week 18 and their defense has been the driving force behind their success. Houston is allowing 16.6 points per game this year and they will like their chances to pile up defensive stops in this contest against an inexperienced quarterback for the Colts.
Indianapolis has lost six games in a row, with quarterback injuries torpedoing its once-promising season. It appears that the Colts are going to roll with Riley Leonard at quarterback in Week 18 instead of Philip Rivers. Not only does that likely spell the end of Rivers' career (again), but it will put the Colts at a huge disadvantage against one of the best defenses in football.
CJ Stroud has not lit it up by any stretch of the imagination this season. But he's done a good enough job of not racking up turnovers and making mistakes that would otherwise take games out of the hands of the Houston defense. As long as that remains the case this week, the Texans will like their chances to get an important win here.
As for the Colts, it will likely be Riley Leonard under center this week. Leonard has only seen meaningful action in one game this season. He has two interceptions and has yet to throw a touchdown pass in limited action. He will have his work cut out for him against an elite defense this week.
Score Projection: Texans 28, Colts 10
Win Probability: Texans 90%, Colts 10%
The Texans should roll in this contest at home in Week 18. But I prefer the under to laying the points with the Texans here, as their defense should shut down Riley Leonard and the Indy offense, allowing Houston's offense to coast in the second half.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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