Kansas City Chiefs vs Jacksonville Jaguars Prediction - 10/6/2025
Updated June 8, 2026
The Kansas City Chiefs will visit the Jacksonville Jaguars on Monday Night Football in Week 5 of the NFL season. The Chiefs will look to build on a dominant performance in Week 4, while the Jaguars are riding high after a statement win over San Francisco. Will the Chiefs get above .500 with a win, or will the Jags move to 4-1 on the season? Continue reading to find out who I like, as I give you my Chiefs vs Jaguars prediction.
Odds | Line |
|---|---|
Spread | Chiefs –3 |
Moneyline | Chiefs –180 / Jaguars +150 |
Total | 46.5 points |
Patrick Mahomes has had an up-and-down start to 2025, struggling in the first two weeks before bouncing back in the last two games. He looked sharp again in Week 4, slinging four touchdowns and showing poise under pressure. A third straight win would do a lot to silence the doubters after a rough start.
Trevor Lawrence has been solid for Jacksonville. Turnovers are always a concern with Lawrence and he has thrown four picks through four weeks. But the running game has really helped Lawrence so far this season, with Travis Etienne averaging just under 100 yards per game.
Score Projection: Kansas City 21 – Jacksonville 24
Win Probability: Kansas City 50% | Jacksonville 50%
This game is a toss-up as far as I'm concerned. The brand name of the Chiefs may be a tempting bet for football fans here. But Jacksonville is allowing just 18 points per game so far this year and I expect them to make things tough on Mahomes and the Kansas City offense. I will go the contrarian route in this game and take the Jaguars to cover the spread as a home underdog to close out Week 5 in the NFL.
