Los Angeles Chargers vs Jacksonville Jaguars Prediction - 11/16/2025
Updated July 9, 2026
The Los Angeles Chargers and Jacksonville Jaguars will do battle in Week 11 of the NFL season on Sunday. The Chargers (7‑3) are flying high after a recent three‑game winning streak and are looking to keep pressure on the Denver Broncos in the AFC West. The Jaguars (5‑4) are reeling from a late‑game collapse last week and need a bounce‑back performance at home. Before kickoff from Jacksonville, continue reading for my Chargers vs Jaguars prediction.
Los Angeles’ defense has really come together under Jim Harbaugh. In their last three games, they surrendered just 13.3 points per game. Jacksonville’s offense has struggled for consistency, going silent late against the Texans last week despite a strong start to that game.
Injuries are crucial for every team at this stage of the season. The Jaguars will be without their rookie standout Travis Hunter for the season, which removes a key playmaker from their secondary and at wide receiver. The Chargers have questions on their offensive line with two starting tackles out (one for the season). That could severely impact Los Angeles’ protection in the passing game.
Chargers signal‑caller Justin Herbert remains among the league leaders in passing yards with already over 2,600 yards. He has limited turnovers after struggles early in the season. Jacksonville’s Trevor Lawrence has thrown 10 touchdowns against 7 interceptions and he has completed under 60% of his passes this season. Given Los Angeles’ improved pass defense, Herbert should have the edge in this quarterback matchup. But nothing is ever certain in the NFL.
Score Projection: Chargers 24 – Jaguars 17
Win Probability: Chargers 57%, Jaguars 43%
I'm going to take the LA Chargers as a favorite on the road in this matchup with the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Chargers should be able to get pressure up front and that will mean rushed decision making from Trevor Lawrence. Lawrence is more mistake-prone than Justin Herbert and that should continue to be the case here. I'll lay the field goal with LA, as they should put the pressure on the Broncos to win against the Chiefs later in the day on Sunday.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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