Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots Prediction & ATS Pick - 1/4/2026
Updated July 9, 2026
The Miami Dolphins and New England Patriots will close out the 2025 NFL regular season on Sunday with a divisional game that carries playoff implications for New England. The Patriots have been one of the most consistent teams in the AFC this season and they could conceivably claim the top seed in the AFC after this weekend is done. Here, I break down this contest between division rivals and give you my Dolphins vs Patriots prediction before kickoff.
Pick: | Over 45.5 |
Confidence: | 4/5 |
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The Patriots are closing in on the top seed in the AFC and a first-round bye, and they arrive in Week 18 riding the momentum of a blowout victory over the Jets that secured the AFC East title with a 13–3 record. New England has been near perfect on the road this season and boasts an undefeated 8–0 road record. But they need a win and a loss from the Denver Broncos to get the top seed in the upcoming AFC playoffs.
Miami sits at 7–9 and are still fighting to finish the season on a positive note. The Dolphins’ offense has struggled with turnovers and maintaining rhythm, especially after benching Tua Tagovailoa for Quinn Ewers at quarterback. But the Dolphins snapped a two-game losing streak by shocking the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 17 and they will try to build on that in this matchup from Foxborough.
Drake Maye has emerged as one of the standout quarterbacks in the league this year and the frontrunner to win this year's MVP award. His performance against the Jets was exceptional, throwing five touchdown passes and completing a high percentage of his throws. Maye is north of 4,000 passing yards this season, joining elite company among franchise signal-callers.
Quinn Ewers has taken over at quarterback for Tua Tagovailoa in Miami. He has completed 65% of his passes this season with two touchdowns and two interceptions. He had his best game since taking over at quarterback last week, throwing two touchdowns with no picks against the Bucs.
Score Projection: Miami Dolphins 20 – New England Patriots 31
Win Probability: Dolphins 18%, Patriots 82%
All signs point toward a Patriots victory in this late-season divisional showdown. But my best bet for this contest is for the over to hit instead of laying double-digits with the Pats. It's possible that the Patriots shut Maye down late in this game if their chances of grabbing the top seed diminishes, but both teams should do some scoring in Week 18.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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