New York Giants vs Las Vegas Raiders Prediction & ATS Pick - 12/28/2025
Updated July 9, 2026
The Week 17 game between the New York Giants and the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday is one of the few games with meaningful stakes this late in the NFL season. Both teams enter with identical 2-13 records and carrying long losing streaks, turning this matchup into a battle for draft positioning. The Giants are slight favorites going into this matchup. Before it kicks off, you can find my Giants vs Raiders prediction below.
Pick: | Giants -1.5 |
Confidence: | 4/5 |
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What makes this game noteworthy is what’s happened off the field as much as on it. Both clubs are tied at the bottom of the league standings at 2-13. Neither team has been able to sustain consistent success this season, and there’s a genuine tension for these teams between playing to win and playing for draft position. The loser of this game is likely to pick first in the next NFL Draft, but the players on the field are trying to win to help their own careers.
The Raiders have been competitive at times, including a recent two-point loss to the Texans last week where Geno Smith threw for multiple touchdowns. Meanwhile, the Giants have dropped nine straight after a tight loss to the Vikings last Sunday. Thankfully for the Giants, Jaxson Dart is not going to have to deal with Maxx Crosby on the Las Vegas defense. Crosby is being held out for the rest of the season due to injury management, which is good news for New York's offense and bad news for the Giants' hopes of drafting first overall.
For the Raiders, Geno Smith’s health has been in question, but he played last week and produced decent numbers against Houston. Smith tossed a couple of touchdowns and remained effective enough to keep Las Vegas in that game. For New York, rookie Jaxson Dart has had an up-and-down year. He is listed as questionable entering this contest due to a concussion, and his limited production in recent weeks has been a big reason for the Giants’ offensive struggles. If Dart is unable to go, it could open the door for Jameis Winston to start again, which would at least be entertaining.
Score Projection: Giants 27 – Raiders 23
Win Probability: Giants 53%, Raiders 47%
I am going to take the Giants to win and cover the spread as a slight favorite on the road against the Raiders on Sunday. The Raiders appear more interested in claiming the top pick in the draft, as evidenced by their decision to sit Crosby. The Giants already have their quarterback of the future and shouldn't be as concerned with losing, so I'll take them here.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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