Dallas Stars vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction - 10/30/2025
Updated July 9, 2026
The Dallas Stars will visit the Tampa Bay Lightning on Thursday night in the NHL. Dallas is off to a strong start this season but still has some ground to make up in the highly competitive Central Division. They will try to get the better of a Lightning team that is rebounding nicely after a slow start to their season. Before the puck drops in Tampa, continue reading to get my Stars vs Lightning prediction for tonight.
Dallas is off to a 6‑3‑1 start and has won their last three games. Their offense has been average, scoring 2.8 goals per game. But their defense has up recently. Dallas has allowed 3.00 goals per game for the season but has allowed a total of four goals during their current three-game winning streak.
Tampa Bay is 4‑4‑2 and is also on a three-game winning streak going into this contest. They’ve averaged 2.90 goals per game while conceding 3.00 goals per game. The Lightning are much better on the penalty kill than Dallas, but Dallas has the advantage in terms of power play conversion rate. Special teams execution on both sides could decide this game.
Jake Oettinger remains in net for Dallas. He has a 2.61 goals‑against average with a .909 save percentage. He recently blanked Washington in a 1–0 win. Tampa's Andrei Vasilevskiy has reduced his GAA under 3.00 for the season, but his .893 save percentage is a red flag. The Lightning will need him to be sharp at home.
Dallas has an elite power play unit, with a 31.4% success rate, ranking among the best in the league. Mikko Rantanen leads the Stars with 12 points (4 G, 8 A) and Wyatt Johnston has six goals, three of which have come on the power play. Tampa Bay's Nikita Kucherov has recorded 10 points (4 G, 6 A) and captain Victor Hedman has contributed eight assists to lead the Lightning.
Player | Stat |
|---|---|
Mikko Rantanen (Stars) | Over 0.5 Points |
Wyatt Johnston (Stars) | Over 0.5 Goals |
Nikita Kucherov (Lightning) | Over 1.5 Assists |
Score Projection: Dallas 2 – Tampa Bay 4
Win Probability: Dallas 42%, Tampa Bay 58%
The margins in this game could be pretty tight, especially if Dallas outperforms Tampa on the power play. But I think that the Lightning will find a way to get a win in this contest on their home ice. The Lightning penalty kill should make the difference as Tampa should grab a fourth win in a row.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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