Tampa Bay Lightning vs Vegas Golden Knights Prediction - 11/6/2025
Updated July 9, 2026
The Tampa Bay Lightning will travel west to take on the Vegas Golden Knights on Thursday night at T-Mobile Arena. Vegas comes into this game tied for first place in the Pacific Division and looking to grab sole possession at the expense of the surprising Anaheim Ducks. Tampa Bay is in fifth in the Atlantic Division and desperate to string together some wins. Before this game begins from Vegas, continue reading to get my Lightning vs Golden Knights prediction.
Vegas enters this game at 7-2-3 on the season. They are 4-1-1 at home going into this matchup and got a 1-0 win over the Detroit Red Wings on home ice in their most recent outing. Tampa Bay stands at 6-5-2 and is playing in its third straight road game. Tampa defeated the Utah Mammoth in the opening game of that road trip before falling to the Colorado Avalanche on Tuesday.
Tampa Bay’s veteran netminder Andrei Vasilevskiy has struggled against Vegas historically, posting a .894 save percentage in his career against them. Vegas’ Akira Schmid is 6-1 this season and has become the primary goaltender for the Knights with Adin Hill injured and out of action until around November 15.
Nikita Kucherov is the driving force for Tampa Bay's attack. He has 22 points in 12 games against Vegas. Jake Guentzel leads the Lightning with 12 points this season and he will try to impact this game both with his scoring and ability to distribute the puck. Vegas is led by Jack Eichel, whose 19 points (8 goals, 11 assists) make up the top total for the Knights.
Player | Prop |
|---|---|
Nikita Kucherov (Tampa Bay) | Over 0.5 points |
Jack Eichel (Vegas) | Over 0.5 assists |
Pavel Dorofeyev (Vegas) | Over 0.5 goals |
Score Projection: Tampa Bay Lightning 2 – Vegas Golden Knights 4
Win Probability: Vegas Golden Knights 60% | Tampa Bay Lightning 40%
Vegas should be able to take care of business on home ice in this matchup. The Knights have been excellent defensively of late, even with a backup goaltender between the pipes. I expect that trend to continue here against a Lightning team that I expect to struggle in their fourth road game in five outings.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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