Arkansas Razorbacks vs LSU Tigers Prediction - 11/15/2025
Updated July 9, 2026
Arkansas visits LSU on Saturday afternoon in an interesting matchup in the SEC. The Razorbacks (2–7, 0–5 SEC) are searching for their first SEC win of the season. They will take on the Tigers (5–4, 2–4), who are dealing with changes at quarterback and with their coaching staff. Here, I break down this matchup from Baton Rouge and make my Arkansas vs LSU prediction.
One of the biggest stories entering this game is the quarterback situation for LSU. The Tigers are expected to be without Garrett Nussmeier for this game due to injury. It will be interesting to see how they handle being without a quarterback that was expected to be a Heisman Trophy candidate going into the year.
Turnovers will also be a huge factor in this game. Arkansas has a poor turnover margin, which has derailed its season. LSU ranks much better in takeaways. But the Tigers could be more vulnerable to turning the ball over with a backup quarterback on the field.
LSU is driven to bounce back under interim head coach Frank Wilson, seeking to stabilize things after firing Brian Kelly. The Tigers need just one more win to qualify for bowl season, which would give them some important extra practice time as their core begins looking ahead to next year.
Arkansas' high-powered offense is averaging over 484 yards per game. But their defense is among the worst in the SEC, giving up more than 430 yards per game. If they can’t slow down a backup quarterback for LSU in this game, the Razorbacks could be in big trouble this week.
Arkansas relies on quarterback Taylen Green, who has thrown for 2,372 yards with 19 touchdowns and 8 interceptions this season. Michael Van Buren Jr. is expected to take over at quarterback for LSU with Nussmeier out. Van Buren has attempted just 27 passes this season. He has thrown two touchdown passes and has not thrown an interception yet.
Score Projection: LSU 30 – Arkansas 27
Win Probability: LSU 61%, Arkansas 39%
The big question going into this game is how Van Buren performs at quarterback for LSU. I think he will do just well enough to win this game at home for the Tigers, securing them a bowl bid. But I will take the points with Arkansas in this contest, as LSU's backup quarterback is completely unproven against SEC competition.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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