LSU vs Alabama Pick & Prediction - 11/8/2025
Updated July 9, 2026
LSU and Alabama will renew their rivalry in SEC play on Saturday night in Tuscaloosa. Alabama is ranked fourth in the country after the release of the first College Football Playoff committee rankings. They are one of two teams with unbeaten records in SEC play and will try to avoid an upset at the hands of the rival Tigers here. Before kickoff at Bryant-Denny Stadium, continue reading for my LSU vs Alabama prediction.
Alabama has been steady and efficient, while LSU is dealing with disruption in their program. The Tide are in control of their own destiny in the race to make the SEC title game and to make the College Football Playoff. They are 5-0 in SEC play and they will make it to Atlanta if they can stay undefeated, no matter what the rest of the teams in the conference do in their games.
The Tigers are reeling from the firing of head coach Brian Kelly and must regroup under interim leader Frank Wilson. The Tigers have lost three of their last four games and will try to move in a different direction after making a leadership change. LSU has given up 40 points per game over their last two games and needs to tighten things up on defense if they want any shot to steal this game from their bitter rivals.
Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson has emerged as a top‑tier signal‑caller in college football. He enters this matchup with 2,184 passing yards, 20 touchdowns, and only one interception. He is one of just three players inside of +500 to win the Heisman Trophy entering this weekend's games.
LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier has thrown for 1,806 yards with 12 touchdowns and five interceptions. He hasn't lived up to the lofty expectations set for him going into the season, but neither has LSU as a whole.
Score Projection: Alabama 31 – LSU 16
Win Probability: Alabama 78%, LSU 22%
I don't think that LSU will be demonstrably worse than they were with Brian Kelly running the show. But I don't think they will be noticeably better either. A road game against Alabama is not a great place for an interim head coach to take over and I expect LSU to struggle with that in mind. My best bet for this rivalry game in the SEC is for Alabama to win big and to cover the spread to stay in the top five in the country.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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