Missouri State vs New Mexico State Pick & Prediction - 10/22/2025
Updated July 9, 2026
New Mexico State will host Missouri State in Conference USA action in college football on Wednesday night. Something has to give in this game, as New Mexico State tries to stay unbeaten at home, while Missouri State aims to keep its winning record on the road. Before kickoff from Las Cruces, continue reading to get my thoughts on this game, including my Missouri State vs New Mexico State prediction.
Bet-Type | Line |
|---|---|
Spread | Pick 'em |
Moneyline | Missouri State –110 / New Mexico State -110 |
Total | 50.5 points |
This is a clash of two 3-3 squads trying to get a key win in conference play. Missouri State has looked decent in their first season of FBS football under head coach Ryan Beard. They are averaging about 265 passing yards per game and lean heavily on their aerial attack. Their defense has held opponents under 30 points in five of their six games, with the only exception being their opener against the USC Trojans.
New Mexico State is coming off a brutal special-teams meltdown against the Liberty Flames. The Aggies had two muffed punts, gave up a kickoff return, and missed a game-tying field goal in a 30-27 loss. But the Aggies remain unbeaten at home at 3-0 going into this game. The Aggies have one of the worst rushing attacks in college football and will need to produce on the ground to pick up a win here.
Missouri State signal-caller Jacob Clark could miss this game after being held out last week. Backup Deuce Bailey stepped in and won on the road against the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders in Missouri State's last game. Bailey had 278 yards on just 16 completions in that game and will be ready if called upon again.
Logan Fife enters this game averaging over 250 passing yards per game in FBS matchups for the Aggies this season. He has eight passing touchdowns and four interceptions through six games. The Bears rank 121st in EPA per pass on defense and 125th in passing success rate allowed. Fife could have a productive night as he looks to take advantage of the porous pass defense of Missouri State.
Score Projection: Missouri State 21 – New Mexico State 27
Win Probability: Missouri State 45%, New Mexico State 55%
I think that New Mexico State has the upper hand in this Conference USA contest. The Aggies are undefeated at home so far this season and they should keep it that way against a Missouri State team that has struggled to defend the pass regularly. I'll take NMSU in a pick 'em game on their home turf.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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