TCU Horned Frogs vs BYU Cougars Prediction - 11/15/2025
Updated July 9, 2026
The Saturday night game between the TCU Horned Frogs (6‑3) and BYU Cougars (8‑1) is one of the most important games of the week in college football. The Cougars enter off their first defeat of the season, while TCU is also trying to regain momentum after a loss last week. With Big 12 championship implications and College Football Playoff positioning on the line, the stakes are high in this game. Before it starts, you can find my TCU vs BYU prediction below.
Pick: BYU -3.5
Confidence: ★★★☆☆
For BYU, the immediate challenge is bouncing back from their 29‑7 defeat against the Texas Tech Red Raiders last week. That loss ended their undefeated run and raised questions about their offense under pressure. The Cougars are still very much alive in the conference and playoff pictures and know this game at home is a must‑win.
TCU had a promising start at 3‑0, but losses in three of their last six games have dampened their momentum. Their offense via quarterback Josh Hoover remains productive. Hoover has 2,690 passing yards, 23 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions so far this season. BYU’s defense will need to neutralize that aerial threat.
TCU’s injury list is something to monitor going into this Big 12 matchup. They will be without running back Kevorian Barnes, wide receiver Ed Small, and other key contributors for this road contest. BYU will try to take advantage of that to keep their playoff hopes alive for another week.
Josh Hoover continues to lead the TCU offense with poise. He must avoid costly mistakes against a BYU defense that is strong in generating takeaways with 16 turnovers forced this season. BYU true freshman QB Bear Bachmeier has shown flashes of maturity in his first season. He has thrown for 1,881 yards with 12 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. He has added 420 rushing yards and 9 rushing touchdowns. His ability to extend plays and run when needed gives BYU another dimension that TCU must account for.
Score Projection: BYU 30 – TCU 24
Win Probability: BYU 65%, TCU 35%
I'm going to take the BYU Cougars to win at home and to cover the spread in this contest from Provo. The Cougars don't have the same explosive passing attack that TCU has developed over the last couple of seasons. But BYU is the more well-rounded team going into this game. The Cougars should get the win on their home turf here and keep their Big 12 title hopes and their College Football Playoff hopes alive with two games left in the regular season.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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