UTEP vs Sam Houston Pick & Prediction - 10/15/2025
Updated July 9, 2026
The UTEP Miners and Sam Houston Bearkats will meet in Conference USA action on Wednesday night. These teams have struggled more than most teams in college football this year. But someone has to win when this game is done. Here, I try to determine which team that will be as I make my UTEP vs Sam Houston prediction for Wednesday night.
Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
UTEP -2.5 | UTEP –140 / SHSU +120 | 47.5 |
Form & Momentum: Sam Houston enters this game reeling. The Bearkats remain winless this season and they surrendered a last-second field goal to lose 29-27 to Jacksonville State in their last game. UTEP is 1-5 on the season and they have yet to beat an opponent from the FBS this season.
Disparity in offensive effectiveness: Sam Houston has ranked near the bottom nationally in several key metrics. Their third-down conversion rate hovers around 18.4%, one of the poorest marks in FBS. Their defense has also allowed large numbers in late quarters, particularly the fourth quarter, where opponents average over 12 points in that span. UTEP has struggled mightly themselves, averaging 14 points per game against FBS opponents heading into this contest.
UTEP signal caller Malachi Nelson has averaged just under 200 passing yards per game this season. He has eight touchdown passes and nine interceptions. He is a high-risk and high-reward player and needs to take advantage of facing one of the worst programs in the country in this game.
Hunter Watson had his best game as a passer in his last game against Jacksonville State. He threw three touchdown passes and didn't throw any interceptions. Watson will try to build on that in this game against a UTEP team that has had its share of problems on defense.
Score Projection: UTEP 28 – Sam Houston 20
Win Probability: UTEP 62%, Sam Houston 38%
Backing either of these teams to win any game is certainly a risk given how they have played so far this season. But I do think that UTEP has the best chance of winning this matchup. The Miners have a more explosive quarterback in Malachi Nelson. Hunter Watson isn't likely to replicate his three-touchdown performance from last week. I will lay the points with UTEP in what should be their first win of the season over an FBS opponent, while Sam Houston should take their seventh straight loss on the season.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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