Indianapolis Colts vs Pittsburgh Steelers Prediction - 11/2/2025
Updated July 9, 2026
The Indianapolis Colts (7-1) will travel to face the Pittsburgh Steelers (4-3) on Sunday in Week 9 of the NFL season. The Colts are off to an incredible start to the year and will try to grab their fifth win in a row at the expense of a Steelers team that is trying to maintain a cushion atop the AFC North. Before kickoff from Acrisure Stadium, continue reading to get my Colts vs Steelers prediction for this week's game.
The Colts continue to enjoy a breakout season, leading the NFL in points per game at 33.8 and ranking third in total offense with 393.3 yards per game. They have a balanced attack that averages 258.9 passing yards and 134.4 rushing yards per contest. Quarterback Daniel Jones has settled in nicely, but running back Jonathan Taylor has been the star of the show with 850 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns.
Indianapolis has improved on defense under coordinator Lou Anarumo and is limiting opponents to 19.3 points per game. Their ability to sustain drives and run the football has also helped their defense, as the Colts don't have their defense on the field for as much time, meaning a fresher defense when they are defending.
The Steelers have underperformed relative to expectations defensively. Their defense ranks 30th in yards allowed per game (386) and is surrendering roughly 273 passing yards per game, the worst mark in the league. That’s a glaring weakness to overcome, particularly when facing a team with the offensive firepower of the Colts.
Pittsburgh’s offense, led by veteran quarterback Aaron Rodgers, has managed 1,489 passing yards with 16 touchdowns and 5 interceptions through seven games. The concern remains whether Rodgers can receive consistent protection and run support, especially if Indianapolis forces the Steelers into a one-dimensional game plan.
Daniel Jones has been a stabilizing presence in Indianapolis. He has 2,062 passing yards, 13 touchdowns, and three interceptions. He looks nothing like the struggling quarterback we saw when he was with the New York Giants.
Aaron Rodgers remains the starter for the Steelers entering this week. He has thrown for 1,489 yards, 16 touchdowns, and five interceptions. He struggled for the most part against the Green Bay Packers last week and will try to deliver a better performance to get his team back into the win column here.
Score Projection: Colts 30 – Steelers 27
Win Probability: Colts 58%, Steelers 42%
The Colts are going to win this game to improve to 8-1 according to my projections. But I think that the Steelers will cover the spread as a 3.5-point underdog. Pittsburgh's defense can do just enough to disrupt Daniel Jones by getting pressure on him, while Rodgers and the Steelers offense will do just enough scoring to cover the number.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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